Football under water? Climate injustice and the future of sport in the Pacific Islands

This study examines how climate change threatens football across Oceania and assesses the ability of Oceania Football Confederation (OFC) member associations to adapt to increasing climate risks. Oceania contributes very little to global greenhouse gas emissions yet faces some of the world’s most severe climate impacts, making the region a clear example of climate injustice. This work combines climate vulnerability analysis with organisational climate capacity assessment to understand how climate change is affecting football in Pacific Island nations.

The climate risk assessment included all 11 member associations of the OFC, using historical weather, flooding, and air quality data alongside future climate projections. One virtual focus group with representatives from all member associations and six semi-structured interviews with regional football and climate stakeholders were conducted to evaluate organisational climate capacity.

As a result, all member associations face high risks from extreme heat and coastal flooding, while several are also vulnerable to cyclones, heavy rainfall, landslides, and wildfire-related air pollution. Although football organisations in the region are highly aware of these risks, they lack the financial, infrastructural, and organisational resources needed to adapt effectively.

Sport managers and governing bodies must provide greater financial and infrastructural support to vulnerable regions like Oceania if football is to remain safe, accessible, and viable under climate change.

CITE: Orr, M., Murfree, J. R., & Ross, W. J. (2025). Football on the frontlines: the unjust burden of the climate crisis on Pacific Island nations. Leisure Studies, 1–16. DOI: 10.1080/02614367.2025.2490547

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