Adapting school sports to a warmer climate in Japan

This study investigates how rising heat levels driven by climate change will affect school sports club activities across Japan and evaluates how well common heat countermeasures can protect students. This study is the first to combine high-resolution hourly climate projections with machine learning to assess future risk and test practical, scalable mitigation strategies.

The authors used data from 842 Japanese cities to develop a model that estimates hourly Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), which accounts for heat, humidity, wind, and solar radiation. They projected future WBGTs under four emissions scenarios and evaluated the impact on after-school sports using national heat safety guidelines, as well as the effectiveness of three countermeasures (i.e., early morning practice, indoor training, and both).

By the 2060s–2080s, even under best-case emissions scenarios, strenuous exercise will be restricted for one to four months in five out of eight WBGT zones defined for Japan, and up to six months under worst-case scenarios. The most effective mitigation strategies (e.g. early morning scheduling, indoor sessions) significantly reduced risk, but could not eliminate restrictions entirely in the hottest zones. Developing heat response policies will be key to keeping sports safe, especially among young participants, in a warming world.

CITE: Oyama, T., Takakura, J. Y., Hosokawa, Y., Honda, Y., Fujii, M., Nakajima, K., & Hijioka, Y. (2025). Heat impacts on school sports club activities in Japan under climate change and the effectiveness of countermeasures. Environmental Research Health, 3 (2), 025008. doi: 10.1088/2752-5309/adbb11

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